Navigating welfare regimes in divided societies: Diversity and the quality of service delivery in Lebanon” (with Melani Cammett), Governance, 2021 (Early View). 
Online Appendix / Supplementary Information
Data and Code

Targeting humanitarian aid using administrative data: model design and validation” (with O. Altindag, S.D. O’Connell, Z. Balcioglu, P. Cadoni, M. Jerneck, A. K. Foong), Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 148, January 2021.

Political context, organizational mission and the quality of social services: Insights from the Health Sector in Lebanon” (with Melani Cammett), World Development, Vol. 98, 2017.


Socio-political determinants of quality in social services

With Melani Cammett, we explore the determinants of quality in social welfare services. Social welfare services are increasingly being provided by diverse organizations, including religious charities, political parties, and secular NGOs. To explore how this organizational diversity affects quality, we collected original data from the Lebanese primary health care network in collaboration with 13 local research assistants. Questions we ask include: Does the quality vary across organizational types and, if yes, why? Which organizational missions attract more competent professionals? Do the sectarian organizations provide superior quality services to their co-ethnics? Which organizations provide equal or superior quality for most vulnerable groups, such as refugees?

  • “Equity with Prejudice: International NGOs and Healthcare Delivery in Refugee Crises” (with Melani Cammett) – Working paper available at SSRN
  • “Secular vs. religious advantage in providing quality health care” (with Melani Cammett)

Political organizations and behavior in the Middle East and North Africa

The extensive dataset we collected from the local election candidates in Tunisia’s first democratic local elections in 2018 allows us to answer a number of theoretically interesting questions.

  • “What men want: Politicians’ strategic response to gender quotas in Tunisia’s 2018 municipal elections,” (with Alexandra Blackman and Julia Clark) – under review
  • “Political accountability in new democracies” (with Chantal Berman, Alexandra Blackman and Julia Clark) – presented at MPSA 2019 [EGAP pre-analysis plan]
  • “Wings of the dove? Ideological factions and debate within Ennahda, Tunisia’s Islamist party” (with Alexandra Blackman and Julia Clark)

With Daniel Ziblatt and Alper Yagci, we explore how voters respond to executive aggrandizement initiatives and why some voters change their institutional preferences based on who might win power.

  • “How do voters respond to assaults to checks and balances? Evidence from a survey experiment in Turkey” (with Alper Yagci and Daniel Ziblatt) – under review [EGAP pre-analysis plan]

In a collaborative project (with Sami Atallah of the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies and Melani Cammett at Harvard University), I explore the determinants of youth political participation in Lebanon and Tunisia, with a particular focus on social identity. Data collection for this project is ongoing as of October 2020.

Institutional design of local governance

In 2014, Turkey undertook an uneven local governance reform in which the governance structures and processes changed for some villages (in 30 governorates) whereas it remained the same for other villages (51 governorates). We explore how this reform aiming to enhance efficiency of rural infrastructure provision affected various aspects of rural development and electoral politics.

  • “Electoral and governance outcomes of municipalization of rural governance” (with Esra Bakkalbasioglu, Tugba Bozcaga and Evren Aydogan) [EGAP pre-analysis plan]


  • Social Welfare in Developing Countries” (with Melani Cammett), in Oxford Handbook of Historical Institutionalism (Tulia Falleti, Orfeo Fioretos and Adam Sheingate, eds.), New York: Oxford University Press, 2016.


  • Istanbul’s Hagia Sophia is a mosque again. Do Turkish citizens want Erdogan to restore the caliphate?” (with Tarek Masoud). Analysis piece at the Monkey Cage Blog of The Washington Post. July 2020.
  • Who really won Tunisia’s first democratic local elections?” Analysis piece at the Monkey Cage Blog of The Washington Post.
  • “One third of municipal councilors in Tunisia are from independent lists. How independent are they?” Democracy International (with Alexandra Blackman and Julia Clark), July 2018. [English] [Arabic]
  • “Generational divide in Tunisia’s 2018 municipal elections: Are youth candidates different?” Democracy International (with Alexandra Blackman and Julia Clark), July 2018. [English] [Arabic]
  • “List fillers or future leaders? Female candidates in Tunisia’s 2018 municipal elections.” Democracy International (with Alexandra Blackman and Julia Clark), July 2018. [English] [Arabic]
  • “Introducing the Tunisian local election candidate survey (LECS): A new approach to studying local governance.” Democracy International (with Alexandra Blackman and Julia Clark), July 2018. [English] [Arabic]